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Dangerous - Unsustainable - Unstable

Bismillah Ar-Rahman Ar-Raheem.



The Unsustainable Green Transition | Simon Michaux

Planet: Critical 3.28K subscribers

7,635 views Apr 19, 2023 #climatecrisis #minerals #politicalcrisis

You can’t go green without going small. Our fossil-fuelled economy is destabilising the planet. But a renewable economy might not be much better. Simon Michaux and his team at the Geological Survey of Finland have been researching how much minerals and materials we have on earth to build our renewable energy. They’ve found that we simply do not have enough—and mining for those materials would bears a huge environmental cost. On this episode, Simon walks us through the research, the possible outcomes from calculated energy contraction to collapse, what policymakers are doing with this information, and how the geopolitics of the US-China proxy war could make the green transition impossible for the West.


00:00 Intro

02:25 The Minerals Shortage

06:24 Ideology vs Reality

07:59 The Mining Problem

13:10 The Energy Problem

19:54 Are policy makers listening?

23:34 Renewables are Underperforming

32:40 The Energy Storage Problem

37:53 The Battery Problem

43:20 Engineering society to cope with variable power

48:08 Dangerous dependence on US and China

52:06 Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?

58:35 The Currency War

01:00:34 US vs EU

01:06:56 The Resource Balanced Economy

01:15:19 Shaping Reality With Stories

01:19:02 Four Paradigms of Future Society

01:24:39 Shrinking the Technosphere

01:29:32 Who would you like to platform?


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the energy that goes into a biological organism defines its size and complexity

0:05 reduce that energy which is what's about to happen to us the size of the organism and the complexity must reduce

0:16 hello and welcome to Planet critical the podcast for a world in crisis my name is Rachel Donald I'm a lecturer a climate

0:23 corruption reporter and your host every week I interview experts who are battling to save our planet my guests

0:29 are scientists politicians academics journalists and activists they explain the complexities of the energy economic

0:37 and political crises that we face today revealing what's really going on and what they think needs to be done

0:43 this is a critical time for our planet it demands critical thinking click the

0:48 Subscribe button now and go to planetcritical.com to learn more my guest this week is Simon Michelle Simon

0:54 is an associate professor at the Geological Survey of Finland and for years he's been researching the minerals crisis the fact that we just don't have

1:01 enough minerals and materials in the Earth's crust to develop a fully renewable economy Simon's work shows

1:08 that if we want a livable future we're going to have to reduce our energy demands our material demands and live

1:13 smaller simpler lives


in the year and a half since we've spoken he explains the

1:24 mineral shortage for those of you who haven't heard the first episode he then discusses the mining problem looking at

1:29 the fiscal structures that will make a renewable economy very difficult he walks us through that Renewables are

1:34 underperforming and discusses the battery problem he then explains how to engineer a society that is livable and

1:40 sustainable for the future introducing us to a concept he's been working on called the resource balanced economy he

1:45 also takes a little detour to discuss who blew up the Nordstrom pipeline which is a fascinating analysis of how the

1:51 mineral and energy crisis is playing into geopolitics around the world I hope you all enjoyed the episode if you do

1:57 please share it far and wide



yes before we talk about the evolution yep could you give a two-minute summary for anybody that had

2:47 doesn't yet understand what the problem is with our minerals and our materials okay all right so my name is Simon

2:53 Michelle I'm an associate professor of the Geological Survey of Finland last couple of years I have been tracking

2:59 information and data in the industrial system to understand not only fossil fuels like

3:05 what does fossil fuels do for us now but our ability to transfer

3:11 and phase out those fossil fuels by applying the plan that we call the green

3:16 transition and what I have found is this problem is actually much much larger than first

3:23 understood and that a lot of the very Basics have not been done by our policy

3:30 leaders they have just been talking in vague platitudes without actually doing the actual math

3:36 of the practicalities of what they're proposing one of the outcomes I have found is that uh

3:43 the uh ability for us to actually deliver the number of electric vehicles

3:48 their batteries solar panels wind turbines has serious mineral shortfalls

3:54 not only in production now but also our industrial manufacturing capacity that

3:59 is available in China that's also too small and our reserves and our resources

4:06 and the resources Under the Sea are all not enough

4:12 right and uh and so yeah and so so we've got a fundamental problem and the way

4:17 out of it is just to make a different plan but that very very basic solution seems

4:22 to be too much for a lot of our policy makers at the moment and so there's a lot of hand ringing going on

4:28 so what you're saying is that we have a fossil fuel economy right now

4:33 um and as the listeners of the show will know if also feel very energy dense incredible fuel

4:39 um we sort of waste a lot of it um because it's just so abundant and we

4:44 cannot substitute that fossil fuel economy within a renewable economy because we're lacking the minerals and the materials to do so yes and uh so but

4:53 even if we had those materials we actually don't have the time to bring it online and now we've also got the

5:00 problems we don't have the money either boom so they've really made sure to make the

5:06 worst possible mess this are possible you know um

5:12 some very very unfortunate problem solving has been used where everyone is assuming someone

5:19 else's somewhere has actually already done this and everything's fine yeah everyone's referencing everyone else in

5:27 a Hall of Mirrors with the understanding that they've not actually looked at actually going and

5:33 phasing at fossil fuels because it's so easy to keep using it and so it is it's

5:38 like an environmentalist saying we don't want mining but then goes down to the shop and buys

5:44 a computer yeah right that has actually been manufactured on the other side of the planet

5:50 using mining methods that you would think that are not only uh unethical but they're actually we

5:56 would consider them illegal that's what the situation we have found ourselves in

6:02 and it it is remarkable uh it's like we've got a series of blind spots as a culture

6:09 and uh and so it's there's more than one and one of those blind spots is we tend

6:15 to believe our own yeah and that and that is at all levels but it's

6:21 especially at the policy making level well what what is the alternative I mean

Ideology vs Reality

6:26 if we live in like a growth obsessed system and success and development is measured by growth then to start talking

6:32 about D growth the sort of antithetical to the whole project well the basic problem is is last 50

6:40 years we've used ideology to solve all their problems yeah right our currency

6:45 for example is now what's called Fiat it's virtual if we want to balance our budget we just print more money it's

6:50 been this way since the early 1970s right and for that reason

6:56 we have become untethered from reality as the virtual Financial world is where we believe reality is yeah

7:05 so meanwhile back at the Batcave reality is now starting to impose itself

7:10 yeah so here we are putting it the virtual Financial worlds where we

7:16 think reality is yeah yes yeah I mean certainly we see it uh given I mean

7:22 you'll be able to speak more on this than I can but you know the obsession with Net Zero policies is if emissions that go out to the sky if they're

7:28 balanced on some Digital Book in some way then it's as if they don't actually exist in the atmosphere as if they you

7:35 know the bio as if the biosphere is digital in some way as well and can be deleted like a series of zeros and ones

7:42 so what I've come to the this all comes down to a fundamental misunderstanding of the Commodities industry right we

7:49 believe like the last I don't know 100 years our technology has developed in like a a two to four year cycle

7:56 where um enable or arise and then someone will go out and they'll invent a technology and that'll change the world

The Mining Problem

8:02 and the point from having the idea to actually getting it to Market in the private sector seems to be around two to

8:09 four years not not always but but the Commodities sector takes 20 years to open a single mine

8:16 right right so it happens much slower and the innovation in the commodity

8:21 sector does tend to happen in very small increments and oil and gas is different

8:27 because a lot of money goes into it but but in the mining industry the actual science behind mining hasn't

8:33 changed much since the 20s yeah right and and so the engineering has changed as we've sort of gone along but the

8:39 basic principle flotation crushing grinding the last Innovation with someone invented the hydrocyclone in

8:45 1920. uh and and so and and we've also got the

8:51 problem where uh um things are actually being shut down where

8:56 we've we've gone for the highest grade deposits first and you end up with the lowest grade deposits later and we're

9:03 using the same basic formula for the industry to actually operate and that

9:09 has happened all the way along and yeah when you see a first grade deposit in a

9:14 low grade deposit does that mean sort of the quality of minerals that are being mined yeah so not only is it the grade

9:20 so so for every let's say ton of all how much metal do you have in it and so when

9:25 I started my career in say the mid 90s uh the cutoff grade for copper was about

9:30 two or three percent and below that we didn't bother it wasn't economic now the cutoff grade or cut off grades for

9:37 feasibility studies that have actually Taken part off is 0.1 percent hang on point one percent of a mineral within

9:43 yeah in a deposit of ores yeah yeah that's a crazy amount of Destruction for

9:49 for very little yes let's say you had like a um a gold ring

9:55 on your finger right that gold ring has three tons of waste somewhere on a

10:00 mining dump somewhere oh my God right so this this is the this is the thing so we've gone from say two or three percent

10:07 to point one percent in the space of my career you know one person

10:12 which is you know which is what 28 years 25 years whatever it is and so

10:19 yeah and and so the other problem is the minerals themselves that we need to

10:25 what's good we need to what's called liberated liberate from The Rock so with a little particles metal we want

10:30 them to be separate so we can actually then pull them out but if the little drains of minerals are really small

10:38 right the smaller you go the more energy you've got to import in grinding and it goes up exponentially it's not a linear

10:45 relationship it's exponential so to grind from say uh when my career started

10:50 closing science year conventional copper plant was around 150 micron what does that mean uh so you're going

10:56 to take the rock then we're going to crush it and then grind it so most of what you've crushed and grind is smaller

11:02 than 150 microns in size right and so so imagine you have like a giant big pile of particles and

11:10 then we're going to put it through what's called a flotation plant which actually uses a chemical or

11:15 physical difference to pull out the metals and so what we're doing is copper

11:20 for example is what's called hydrophobic it does not like water so you put it into water and then you put bubbles in

11:27 it lots of bubbles say like big say in your washing up and as the bubbles rise through that a copper particle go oh

11:34 there's a there's a pocket of air and it'll want to stick to that pocket of air more than it wants to stay in the water and so that Rose to the top and

11:42 you have what's called a frothbid scrape the froth bit off and you've

11:47 concentrated it to about 25 copper so and so and but then you've got to

11:55 take that and then put that in a smelter yeah which will then refine it down and and then uh to the point where you get

12:01 99.99 pure copper in a refining circuit on the other side so so that that's

12:07 that's what they're doing so but if you've got to grind down to 150 micron right that's x amount of power but if

12:14 you've now got to grind down to 10 micron that's not a linear relationship you've got this exponential curve called the

12:20 hooky energy relationship so so vastly more energy is required to go finer and what we've and what we're

12:28 now tackling is is deposits that are very disseminated and small grained so we've need much much more energy and

12:34 much much more potable water consumed to actually extract a unit of

12:39 metal compared to say 30 years ago right so the problem is there aren't

12:45 enough reserves to make the transition the reserves that we do have are of a lower quality the energy cost to get the

12:51 materials out of those reserves that we would need and to refine them it would also be higher and all in the time when

12:57 we are running out of the fuel that we currently use to run our economy that we would need to also build everything for

13:04 the renewable transition so it seems like as uh there's another problem again there's another there's another problem

The Energy Problem

13:11 again our mining system at the moment is heavily dependent on fossil fuels yeah so what we do is we send like a gas

13:18 pipeline out to the middle of nowhere to a power plant that generates a lot of electricity and that electricity runs

13:24 some of the machines and you have a diesel truck and shovel Fleet to actually bring in the ore from the open pit

13:30 right and and so we're not mining with solar panels and wind turbines

13:36 when we do shit's gonna get real what does that mean uh a mine is

13:42 actually based around uh an economic feasibility is it economically viable to do

13:49 you know the the whole it's it's a very very well organized economic business model based on what's

13:55 there right and at the moment the cutoff grade associated with what is economically viable is associated with

14:02 the mining costs and power is a big cost right so if that

14:08 power triples or or is now 10 times what it was before for one reason or another

14:14 then what is previously economic is no longer economic so costs are going to go up what about

14:21 the fact that uh renewable energy is getting progressively cheaper at one point is it gonna get cheaper than

14:27 fossil fuels and then so so hang on it's getting cheaper when it's still a small system

14:32 but but if it can be shown that we don't have enough minerals in the ground to make a replacement system we will hit a

14:40 asymptote in the market where all of a sudden there's now scarcity of Metal Supply

14:45 and the and the systems you want to use are no longer available on the market so that cheap price cannot stay cheap it's

14:53 a temporary situation it's a situation while while we have metal to uh to

15:00 supply things are fine right but when we actually want to ramp up and actually sort of start doing this

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Allah knows best. (All things.)


Quran 18:109:


SAY: "If all the sea were ink for my Sustainer's words, the sea would indeed be exhausted ere my Sustainer's words are exhausted! And [thus it would be] if we were to add to it sea upon sea."


My God.


[Prostration].



Astafillurallah. "I am nothing". -> "Be nice".



(A good saying (zikr/dikr) - (upon waking but also any time) : Al hamdu lillahi lathee afanifi jasadi wa radda A'layya ruhi wa athini lee bi dhikrih ("All priase is for Allah who restored me to health and returned my soul and has allowed me to remember Him").


When one of you awakens, he should recite the following du’a: https://hadithanswers.com/a-dua-to-read-upon-awakening/

Alhamdulillahil ladhi radda ‘alayya ruhi wa ‘afani fi jasadi wa adhina li bidhikrihi’


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15:06 surreal um then we've got a problem so when I say stuffs [s**t's] going to get real is

15:11 when the mining industry now has to run in a situation where it is on non-fossil fuel systems only

15:18 right uh um the the manufacturing supply chain at the moment is only conceptual and we just haven't thought it through

15:25 that fossil fuels are a hidden subsidy for everything take that away you've now got a hidden penalty

15:31 and I think a lot of Mining and a lot of manufacture will just simply stop

15:37 right right and that's just you know what do you do and then I

15:45 imagine it becomes a bit of a sort of descending spiral then as as well in that you've got you've got mining that

15:51 stops and and also I think it's worth putting out at this point that um for all the advocate of a

15:58 transition like there's lots of environmental discussions and problems around Mining and the excesses of Mining and the fact that we do not prioritize

16:04 our resource use for example you know digging at Gold producing three tons of waste so that it can go on somebody's

16:10 finger um but if we're in a position where we don't have fossil fuels to do the work and then mining progressively shuts down

16:16 then you can sort of kiss goodbye to any dream of uh increasingly expansive renewable economy yeah so what what


ends

16:24 up happening is uh it moves out of an economic pre-market Paradigm into a

16:29 strategic asset Paradigm because fossil fuels are going and we do need to actually the only plan

16:36 B we have is at the moment wind turbine solar panels and EVS we don't have a technology somewhere else and we can't

16:43 wait anymore right so the green transition will happen what I'm saying

16:48 is it will be much much smaller than we think and so entering into a world of a

16:53 energy contraction like a Sharp Energy contraction and we're just not prepared for it

17:00 at the moment uh and

17:05 there's going to be a reordering and a revaluing of society and and and and so...



just accept the fact that things are variable we're very used to the idea of flicking the switch and there it is

45:27 um like computers for example might run on a buffer for a period of time but when it shuts down it's got a wait

45:34 till power comes again and until then you can't have your computer it might be something like that what that looks like

45:40 I don't know and this is not this is not necessarily uncommon as well like we are very very spoiled in the west quote

45:46 unquote uh South Africa plenty of ruling like daily rolling blackouts to manage the the energy grip like this is how

45:53 some countries survive yep that's right and we all think that's not our problem

45:58 I can see uh um difficulties on multiple fronts here gone

46:04 so ciety at the moment for example is very used to like a just-in-time supply grid

46:10 and it's economic for the example I like to use is in Edinburgh they go and fish for

46:17 salmon in the sea right so the fishermen who go and fish the salmon

46:22 they get this lovely sermon what do they do they put it on a boat and send it to Vietnam in Vietnam it's put in a tin

46:28 they tend to put on another ship and brought back to Edinburgh important Supermarket so the fishermen who fish

46:33 for the salmon when they buy food for their for their families they go to the supermarket and they buy these tins of salmon

46:39 they could go down to a fish market buy fresh salmon and use that but that's not what they do

46:46 right and it's economic to do it makes economic sense to do that because energy is so cheap it's irrelevant yeah

46:53 so so we're going to start managing our energy and our material consumption like

46:59 we manage our money we are damn careful with our money and I think it's going to become something

47:05 like that okay okay so we are looking at energy shortages a decline in energy that is

47:11 available a decline in time when energy is available we're looking at a big energy contraction wasn't it you you

47:18 have the stat that we are currently at a 19 gigawatt society and we need to go

47:23 down to a five gigawatts Society oh I think Nate Hagan's uh uh had that one I agree he had the 19

47:30 terawatt 19 terawatt society and he said we need to go to a 10 terawatt Society I

47:36 laughed at him so there's probably going to be two maybe five if we're lucky right so because here's the thing it

47:43 would be different if we started 40 years ago and we slowly organized things over time but we've done nothing

47:49 one percent of the electric vehicle of the global Fleet of vehicles is electric vehicles that's at 1.1 percent

47:56 right and renewable energy is still about four or five percent of the primary energy pie we've done

48:02 nothing right so right so what that means is the the whole non-fossil fuel

Dangerous dependence on US and China

48:09 system hasn't been built yet yeah we just we just haven't done it yet and

48:15 things are about to go seriously in elastic economically we I I reckon oh

48:21 well it's an opinion right but by the end of this year we could find ourselves in a kinetic

48:28 shooting wall East versus West as in Russia and China versus everyone

48:33 else now ethics aside we are dependent on both of those countries wherever we

48:39 actually need and so we've allowed ourselves to be in a conflict without making ourselves

48:44 self-sufficient first and what that means we want to buy

48:51 uh I don't know 100 million electric vehicles and say 10 000 wind turbines

48:56 where does that all come from China who makes it stuff China who does the mining China

49:02 right right um we don't have the money now but be nice to us hang on no no that's not going to work either uh and

49:09 so this stuff's not going to be available on the market yeah and and so we're going to have like a step down

49:15 even if we got serious and said right we now want 10 000 wind turbines the time it would take the Chinese to deliver on

49:22 that is is years it takes time to make this stuff they've only got so much capacity to start

49:28 pumping stuff out and what if we're not if we're not going to get along they're not going to give it to us absolutely what about our

49:36 engineering new home and our industrial manufacturing capacity okay sure so we have to develop a local

49:42 capacity in the British Isles right across the British Isles you have

49:48 a history of mining but mining is considered dirty and filthy and unenvironmental you don't do mining

49:54 anymore you depend on it for somewhere else how long

49:59 how long would it take for you to establish a mining industry in the British Isles

50:05 again and so well if you got serious you're talking to 10 15 20 years so it takes that long to build this

50:11 stuff yeah on top of that now you've got to have the ability to smelt the stuff into Metals at the moment we

50:18 get the Chinese as all that how long would it take to build the smelters again 15 years maybe

50:23 and then on top of that so you've got a lot of manufacturing capability in the UK and in fact there is a plan on

50:31 putting forward that um Finland what's the size of the circular economy that could be right across the Nordic

50:37 Frontier countries but we need a dance part and I'm proposing the UK is that dance partner

50:43 so the Nordic Frontier can tie up the one end of the value chain from mining

50:48 to chemicals that's refining chemicals metals but we don't have any manufacturing capacity

50:54 right the UK has a manufacturing capacity but you have shut down and and

51:00 atrophied your resource sector right so we can so that we we can

51:06 actually take up one end and you take up the other end and we do business right and now that now that now that you're outside the EU you're actually easier to

51:13 deal with right right so I think that's the first

51:18 time anybody said that sentence ever well okay look I've been burned at the stake for Less so we'll see how that

51:24 goes um so all right but uh yeah and so it will

51:32 take time if if the UK decides to get real yeah and and actually sort of build its own

51:39 capability we're talking years 15 maybe 20 years maybe more

51:45 things are about to get real between the west and the east in the next few months

51:51 right so it's so we're down to months and and we tend to do stupid stuff like we throw economic sanctions around

51:58 and I don't believe there are any good guys in that conversation we're all doing dodgy stuff all of us

Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?

52:06 who blew up the north stream pipeline who indeed asking for a friend because

52:13 whoever whoever did that they've guaranteed that Europe is now in a

52:19 situation where it must be committed to a military action that it cannot actually win

52:25 we have not maintained our military competency in terms of number of units

52:31 on the ground number of Tanks number of planes that the Ukraine war has emptied

52:37 the stockpiles of all their consumables right across Europe and you can see that because people are now reluctant to send

52:43 more stuff in and when they're sending stuff in they're sending it in like we're going to send 12 tanks

52:50 12 tanks marvelous good one guys

52:56 right now I know nothing about the the conflicts in Ukraine essentially but

53:01 apart from stuff on Twitter but let's devolve a little bit because I mean last I saw Putin was taking trunk uh trunks

53:09 tanks I have museums to put them at the front line because the war is not going well I mean he thought it would be done

53:15 by now where what I eat a year into this now I think there's a lot of that

53:20 were being fed from official sources and we actually don't know what's really going on yeah

53:26 numbers on the ground are the Russians losing are they taking casualties question do they care Russians

53:34 um so the ukrainians had a fleet of something like 3 000 armored vehicles

53:41 right they're down to something like three or four hundred right and and so the Russians are

53:47 sending in several battalions of new troops that are coming in and even if they're dodgy stuff from museums that

53:53 are all rusty in in your Soviet era of stuff uh sending 12 tanks when they've

53:59 lost 19 they've lost two and a half thousand it's not going to change the calculus

54:06 it's it's it's like it's like it's a war that everyone does take very seriously

54:13 yeah and and they want to fight to the last Ukrainian but they won't actually commit themselves

54:18 um there's no airstrikes going on for example but I thought that was because of the

54:24 whole fear of like really NATO getting involved and I thought the whole thing with the Nordstrom pipeline was that it

54:30 was the United States government that blew that up yeah well that that is my information too yeah um that um and

54:37 that's been passed to me from the American sector that they believe yes it was the Americans not only that that they would they didn't do that with

54:43 Congressional um oversight and they've is actually an active economic Warfare against their own Ally

54:49 and what I'm hearing in Germany is is there's a very internal discussion about who our allies really are

54:57 um but there was a partner company a partner country in there too it was either Poland or Norway

55:03 and so uh the the dodgy dodgy dodgy dodgy because it looks to me sorry but

55:09 it looks to me that essentially that move was in order to sort of like

55:15 take and maintain energy dominance because it's the United States that is now like rewriting the natural gas roots

55:22 and like making sure that and that Europe has got enough and essentially in debting Europe in some way

55:28 um and making them rely on the yeah the energy streams that they they um now depend on now that the Russian

55:34 energy stream is out of the picture Europe very much depends on the United States for energy Supply is that not correct

55:40 so there there's actually more to that story I'm just going to pull up the actual numbers here so the gas industry

55:46 if we were to actually look at in terms of production versus consumption of gas

55:51 all countries can dominate the gas industry they are Russia China in the

55:57 United States and Iran right but those big countries of production also have to be the biggest

56:03 consumers right so uh what can I actually bring and they also have the biggest reserves

56:09 too this I believe this is a function of peak oil being in November 2018. that's



there's this General sort of lack of

1:04:55 reality uh um with with all of these things and I think we're in a process that we are

1:05:04 being smacked down so so he coil was a thing that was projected to destroy Society

1:05:11 so it's possible that peak oil is November 2018. yeah

1:05:17 and when you actually look at the chart it it's still going down I don't think it's going to come back yeah but

1:05:24 peak oil was associated with our ability to have gasoline and petrol

1:05:29 they're now making gasoline in the United States out of gas so 48 of the gasoline coming out of the

1:05:36 United States is sourced from natural gas and biofuels so what that means is a

1:05:42 normal conception of what peak oil actually is now has to be re-looked at and we're using the gas industry to prop

1:05:48 up the oil industry yeah now calorifically that's that's not terribly bright

1:05:54 uh because you know oil was much richer than gas uh calorifically so so your

1:06:00 energy return on energy invested you'll be lower and when they're building in a very very

1:06:06 structural inefficiency into the gas industry but they're holding it together and so it's possible our total liquids

1:06:12 consumption could beat the 2018 record but oil

1:06:18 oil has contracted and I don't think it's coming back yeah yeah yeah nobody

1:06:23 expects who thinks it's coming back yeah um all right so

1:06:29 we're in a pretty bad way um we don't have any stuff yeah that's

1:06:35 it we don't have enough stuff we don't have enough capacity we don't have very many friends um and even for those of us living in

1:06:41 this part of the world used to lives of huge luxury those luxuries are going to go on rightly so because they're built off the backs of exploitation and

1:06:47 extraction um but our policy makers are sort of seemingly blind to what's going on

1:06:53 because it would demanding a massive overhaul of the status quo however I understand that you are working on a

The Resource Balanced Economy

1:06:59 model called the resource balanced economy to present to them could you walk us through that right so the

1:07:05 Swedish government they asked me directly and says Okay

1:07:10 um could you because I'm part of a group called The circular economy Solutions within the Geological Survey and so

1:07:17 we've got our hands on what we call the circular economy and it says could you redesign that circular economy in

1:07:22 context of your work that is we're about to lose fossil fuels we don't have enough resources to do the green

1:07:28 transition Etc what do we do and so

1:07:33 I signed it's futile to try and sort of dictate what the future will be like I said right so what I've done is

1:07:41 try to understand the boundary conditions of what the future might be and to

1:07:47 understand where we put our effort now where this came from are you this

1:07:53 might make you laugh um I hope she's laughing already look at that so I used to work on an organic farm as

1:08:00 a laborer and so it's learning how to grow food and you

1:08:07 you often and so you see things every now and then and and so there was an example where we had like a row of fruit

1:08:12 trees a couple rows of fruit trees and they had a fungus on them and that fungus was killing the trees

1:08:17 one row we put a fungicide on right so to to try and kill off the

1:08:23 fungus and we ran out of fungicide so it's the other row of trees we put the natural

1:08:28 fertilizer down based on a soil test to balance out the soil and give that and six months later we come back I

1:08:35 don't know how long it was something like six months the row of trees that had the fungicide

1:08:40 on it the fungus was mostly gone but not completely the trees were still alive but only just

1:08:46 foreign just put the fertilizer on they were

1:08:53 thriving and the fungus didn't exist right so what the learning from that

1:08:58 in a long-winded waiter to get around to this is instead of actually flocking yourself trying to prevent a problem

1:09:05 put your energy on what will Thrive and work in the solution set and then that will override everything else

1:09:12 so industrially where will things likely

1:09:17 to work um and so um

1:09:25 if we got the twin problems we don't have enough energy and raw material as well and a

1:09:31 particular stuff arriving on the market in Australia we get hit with natural

1:09:36 disasters every now and then and what we do when you have an emergency is everyone puts aside their normal mode of

1:09:42 operation and the society comes together and says that we will now do what is necessary to

1:09:48 see to the needs of those societies for example in the town I lived in called Brisbane it used to flood every now and

1:09:53 then and so like whole suburbs would be underwater and when the water recedes

1:09:59 everything's covered in mud and so the mud army deploys people from all over the city would then come in

1:10:06 with with tools like shovels and brooms and everything like that and they're transported in by the city council to

1:10:11 try and help everyone clean up right so in that environment something's

1:10:17 gone wrong what do we do the normal use of ways of doing things are finished so in an emergency context something we

1:10:24 really need to have happen is no longer available what do we do and yeah and so so it's almost like a

1:10:31 wartime problem solving or an economic depression problem solving do we collectively we sit on our

1:10:37 butts and wait for it to get better or do we realize that this is not getting better we've got to fix it and

1:10:42 to fix it we've got to build something else that we've not seen before and once we collectively understand that right

1:10:48 first things first I think be we are surrounded by useful stuff that needs to be repurposed

1:10:55 but like all those ice cars right they're full of useful things like

1:11:00 alternators and and bearings and wheels and and the the panels for example could

1:11:06 be used so we're going to see a return of the old boneyards that will collect stuff

1:11:11 and people are going to be stripping useful stuff out of them and the useful stuff will then be stored in a shed out

1:11:18 of the weather and they'll be fed into a series of machines shops to make stuff new machines new devices whatever

1:11:25 and could we look at our Electronics like that like in your computer you throw it away

1:11:31 but what if someone was to pull apart the computer and harvest all the bits out of it that still might be useful

1:11:36 like just because the the motherboard's burned out does that mean you can't use the graphics card and so on

1:11:43 and so you can have the bone yet and so recycling will become more prominent but

1:11:48 before we get to recycling we're going to be doing repurposing

1:11:53 the transport sector will take the biggest hit they in Finland for example 80 percent

1:11:58 of our electricity is already coming from non-possel fuels and we've got a heavy industry system of

1:12:04 smelters and refineries that are actually already operating on non-fossil fuels it's amazing hey that's not the

1:12:11 case in America um so all right um

1:12:16 but most of the transport sector is fossil fuels the tap gets turned off or

1:12:22 or becomes very volatile or the government says this is now so expensive and we don't have a lot now that we're

1:12:28 going to start talking rashing whatever uh so the capability of Transport is

1:12:35 going to contract greatly what do we do well instead of actually driving small

1:12:40 personal cars around we all go to communal transport like buses and trucks

1:12:47 and so everything we do will be less quantity higher quality

1:12:53 do we really mean it we're a very wasteful Society at the moment and a lot of it's based on women not well imagine

1:13:00 a society where what you do what you need and what you want all become the

1:13:06 same thing right so and that's that's not what we

1:13:11 are at the moment yeah right and so it's going to be a rough learning curve

1:13:18 um yeah so these are the things to think about yeah definitely and and so so

1:13:25 transport will contract energy use will contract people will adapt

1:13:30 and so it will become a low energy Society where do we get our food from as a big

1:13:35 problem yeah and fertilizer is all for making food and so we've got to get off

1:13:40 petrochemical fertilizers anyway yeah but it would have been preferable not to do it like this yes

1:13:48 what you mean like inevitable food shortages yeah and and fertilizer production and

1:13:54 and stuff like so so here in conventional industrial agriculture

1:14:00 is a problem for every bushel of wheat we take to the market 0.8 of a cubic meter is of of

1:14:07 soil is sterilized that is soil that's full of the soil

1:14:13 food web and you know organisms and organic matter goes to sterile dirt that won't support agriculture

1:14:22 what was the 0.8 becomes for every yes for every for

1:14:27 every about a bushel of wheat 0.8 of a cubic meter becomes sterilized

1:14:34 land is deteriorating arable land has degradated where you know something like

1:14:40 about 40 is it 40 since 1960 the start of the when the Green Revolution really kicked

1:14:46 off 40 of land has deteriorated and it shrunk Okay so we've got a massive population

1:14:53 but less land to grow it on and we've gotten away with it by being more efficient about growing food on that

1:14:59 land okay and the runoffs from industrial

1:15:04 agriculture goes into the waterways and that's overloading the phosphorus cycle and the nitrogen cycle on a planetary

1:15:11 scale and of acidifying the oceans that in conjunction with the plastic we're dumping in the oceans right so so

1:15:18 the whole food system at the moment is the problem

Shaping Reality With Stories

1:15:24 yeah and so to me the solution is we all go to many small scale organic operations

1:15:32 and we merge growing of food with the biodiversity natural systems

1:15:39 using permaculture now that's not a very politically correct thing to say

1:15:46 why in a meeting that when they're talking about growth and jobs and

1:15:52 economy and then I get told things like have a cold shower please sit down

1:15:59 um yes and and so everyone understands the problem they

1:16:05 just don't know what to do about to get there because it will it'll result in a

1:16:10 community that is deeply unhappy about being told they have less well I mean I suppose that depends

1:16:18 though right and I think that's where narrative comes in you said at the beginning of this uh episode that we've

1:16:23 been using ideology to make decisions like storytelling is such an important function of how we get things right and

1:16:30 wrong and how we make decisions and I think that now is a particularly

1:16:35 interesting time for change given how turbulent everything is and just given how life is for so many people I

1:16:43 think like people are having less and less and less in a growth economy so I think this idea I think there will be

1:16:49 people who will wake up to like okay maybe I can't have the latest thing or

1:16:55 the idea of the latest thing as quickly as I want it but the way the economy is going or the way that my life is right now I can't have it anyway because I'm

1:17:01 not getting paid a real wage and I'm completely divorced from my labor and for my means and all this kind of stuff so like yeah put me into a community

1:17:07 where we can be vaguely self-sufficient I remember I can have more autonomy over my life I feel like now is the moment

1:17:15 where those kind kinds of decisions can be made where people are sort of gravitating towards a different way of social organizing because they are very

1:17:21 much seeing that this top-down approach but the little people underfoot that get squashed so that might be the case but

1:17:30 hold the phone where do we get most of our stuff at the moment China right near but someone says if

1:17:37 that checks out and we don't have any useful way to replace it what we're

1:17:42 essentially saying to most of the population is be a climate hero kill yourself

1:17:49 I disagree that day we were saying that you know we haven't organized this well enough and

1:17:55 everybody's gonna have to you know we're gonna have to rebuild our country but if you mentioned war and like there was a

1:18:01 longitudinal study done uh during World War II and afterwards for 20 years found that britons were happiest during the

1:18:07 war because they had a common purpose they had a common enemy and you know the normalities of Life got put aside to do

1:18:14 something together to achieve collectively so again I think it depends

1:18:19 on like how the story is told and the way that it's oh yes I agree agree on that it's just that the

1:18:26 the difficult situation we find ourselves in the price of doing nothing and and you know uh using ideology in a

1:18:35 Hall of Mirrors um to make a narrative and then when the when the veil lifts yeah it's it's it's

1:18:41 like Humanity collectively has walked to the edge of the pier and then sort of oh oh it's all gone

1:18:46 yeah it's like the Music Stops and there's

1:18:52 not enough chairs now what uh yeah so so we've got to collectively understand

1:18:57 that our normal ways of thinking aren't going to cut it yeah so this this is the

Four Paradigms of Future Society

1:19:02 idea where I believe Society is going to split into four basic paradigms and and so how do we respond to this and

1:19:09 and which of those paradigms are actually going to be useful and which are what I look forward okay so this is

1:19:17 um an idea that I put together first one is the cornucopians these are the people

1:19:23 who believe it'll be fine someone will think of something it'll work out we're not

1:19:28 really in much trouble it's all good okay and the people who refuse to

1:19:35 actually engage in this conversation at all um people who want to keep the existing

1:19:40 fossil fuel system going people who believe for example that the green transition in its current form is

1:19:46 what we do you know most of the people working in the oil industry believe

1:19:52 electric vehicles will come online and make everything so cheap that oil will become Obsolete and they will drive

1:19:58 Teslas right so they see this this is an economic problem yeah right but they

1:20:04 don't want to hear about resource limits and so you can't do anything with these people

1:20:09 wave goodbye see you go like like don't um I I found out the hard way it's so

1:20:17 much easier to go and work with like-minded people that try and convince people of things they don't want to hear right second group is the group I call

1:20:25 the Vikings although when I was talking to Amanda Scott the other day she said she prefers to call them the Pirates

1:20:33 um these are people who realize everything's the wheels are falling up and it's getting tough

1:20:40 but instead of going through the hard work of making a new system let's just go and take stuff from someone else

1:20:46 okay and the readers the Raiders and so yeah

1:20:51 that's that's a good one so so let's go and take stuff from someone else the problem is there comes a point when

1:20:57 there's no more stuff to take or their ability to go and take is comes very

1:21:02 difficult because they don't have like you know fuel to move around in the same way anymore yeah and now this is a a

1:21:09 mentality we're seeing at all levels including nation state levels yeah because there's this idea of predation

1:21:15 you know uh instead of doing things collectively and can we make a better solution no no no

1:21:21 let's try and take stuff off each other yeah right the third group is the group

1:21:26 that I call the prepper community and so these are the people who understand the wheels are falling off

1:21:32 our normal systems that we normally operate with are not doing so well

1:21:38 and then they will step up and take care of business to make sure that needs of society are looked to and they do things

1:21:46 they grow their own food they'll manage their Institute sanitation they'll manage to learn water

1:21:51 supply uh they'll either go without power generation will generate their own power

1:21:56 but that stuff and they'll use problem solving from any different sector it doesn't have to be

1:22:02 pretty as long as it works okay the fourth group is a group I call the arcadians

1:22:10 and they are the group that actually uh looks 100 years into the future

1:22:17 or something like that and it says how do we build a new Society that's genuinely wise where Humanity has

1:22:24 learned everything it needs to learn and we can actually genuinely sustainable and you have the harmonious merging

1:22:31 of people the social contract the environment in all its forms and all its

1:22:37 scales and what technology we have available what does that look like

1:22:42 and so um yeah and so there's groups like the Venus Project and Jacques Fresco that's

1:22:48 been thinking about that since the 70s but a lot of the work done thus far has not recognized the material shortages or

1:22:54 the energy shortages right okay and so the way forward for me is you take something like the Venus Project and you

1:23:01 integrate it into the prepper Community what would happen if the prepper Community was handed some

1:23:07 disruptive technology that that was able to recognize the commodity shortfalls

1:23:14 that would change everything yeah yeah yeah yeah and it really is that isn't it it speaks to the fact that

1:23:21 you do need people who feel themselves to be at risk in a sense to be innovating because they understand what

1:23:27 is at stake in a way that people at the top apparently simply seem to not

1:23:33 yeah so so and and in fact because the people at the top politicians not

1:23:38 leaders they follow us they will do what's that's popular so they'll look to someone else about

1:23:45 what that popular is yeah right and so as in uh things fundamentally change

1:23:51 the new leaders are not the current leaders yeah other people will step up to the and and we'll take on that role

1:24:00 and the uh and the old leaders will fight them because they don't want no no Parada any given Paradigm will fight for

1:24:07 its own Survival yeah and and so yeah and so we've there's

1:24:13 this there's a whole series of things here where um humanity is going to meet these

1:24:19 challenges but we're all different and we're all going to meet it differently and every region has different uh

1:24:24 opportunities and but like for example I can see it's decentralizing

1:24:30 um yeah so um and what good thing it would be too to be honest well you you

1:24:36 we don't have a choice yeah because uh the energy the energy that goes into a biological organism defines its size and


Shrinking the Technosphere


1:24:43 complexity reduce that energy which is what's about to happen to us the size of the organism

1:24:48 and the complexity must reduce yeah but you know what I I've been thinking about this recently and I think that whilst

1:24:55 like the size of the organism as we understand it I.E the systems and the technology and the infrastructure might reduce some complexity I think that

1:25:02 that's going to allow for a more complex society and culture to arrive because if you think about like our Global culture

1:25:08 it is increasingly simplified we are eradicating languages we are getting rid of like National cultures of indigenous

1:25:14 cultures like everything has sort of been subsumed by this like Global Financial system the way everybody

1:25:19 interacts with each other is the same it's trades on a market we have the same color in Seas we all use the same technology to kind of interact with each

1:25:26 other everybody's speaking English like it's this increasing Simplicity of human culture

1:25:31 with this increasingly complex technological infrastructure essentially and so if that contracts we could see a

1:25:39 real eyeball Renaissance again in the complexity and magic and what Wonder are

1:25:44 of human organization so the technosphere shrinks yeah and the

1:25:49 focus goes from technology that we depend upon to we become the strongest

1:25:55 Link in the chain yeah and the focus becomes more local so in Australia for

1:26:00 example there's three levels of government you've got the federal government administs the whole continent and then you've got six states in a

1:26:06 couple of territories right and then you've got your city councils and Shire councils who

1:26:11 is useful the federal government organizers defense and manages the

1:26:17 currency and they have screwed the perch on both of those so they're not useful the state government doesn't necessarily

1:26:24 own useful assets um but they tend to enforce policy on

1:26:30 everything else that they they might own roads they might only earn the occasional power station

1:26:36 City councils and Shire councils they own the hospitals the waste transfer stations the schools that's all the

1:26:43 stuff we need and so what I can see happening is the authority of who decides what

1:26:51 happens goes from like the current system is the nation state and that's in

1:26:56 the current high energy so the nation state will have to become simpler yeah so instead of being all decisions made

1:27:02 at a central point and sent out and we will do it it'll become more decentralized to the Shire Council level

1:27:09 and the city council level whereas the nation state is now a transfer of information Point yeah right

1:27:17 now the authority will go from the central federal level to the Shire Council level

1:27:22 and and then then that then percolates on to the social contract that you were talking about that has

1:27:29 um you know we will do more ourselves so the individual's got to become stronger and more capable

1:27:36 and less technology dependent and then we are going to become

1:27:41 um you have to be wiser as a society but the consequence of getting things wrong

1:27:46 can no longer be deferred and we can't go anywhere so if we make a mess of it

1:27:52 we're messing up our own nest where at the moment when we make a mess or something it's out of mind out of

1:27:58 sight yeah so very quickly by necessity we will become a wiser Society yeah

1:28:04 where reality will impose itself on a daily basis yeah so collectively we grow up yeah and

1:28:12 we and we Face certain things that we have not faced until now yeah yeah it is

1:28:17 a very important framing of the transition in a sense because whilst it is likely going to be it will be ugly

1:28:23 and it will be bumpy and then we should have acted much much much sooner the

1:28:30 the dictates of an energy contraction of shortages of then having to create a

1:28:35 value system where we decide what we are going to prioritize what kind of people do we want to be what do we want to invest and how are we going to treat

1:28:41 each other that can only be a good thing eventually hopefully so the difference

1:28:46 between the Vikings and the Preppers and the acadians is

1:28:54 how you see the people around you is the person next to you someone to go and take stuff up or is the person next to

1:29:01 you somehow part of your solution for your long-term survival and that will be demonstrated out and if

1:29:08 we all understand that there's not enough to go around and all of a sudden we're all poor and we all have to go we will now have to go through what we're

1:29:14 going through and it's up to us to make the next future whatever that is yeah

1:29:23 Step Up show up clean up will fade away yeah it's a or as or as we like to say

1:29:30 in Australia harden up Australia right Simon I think you've given us an amazing tour of the situation uh

Who would you like to platform?

1:29:37 currently and what it might be in the future thank you so much for your time I know I've already had you on as a guest

1:29:43 before but I'm going to ask you just in case somebody knew who would you like to platform oh Vandana Shiva she she has

1:29:51 done some seriously seriously useful work in terms of

1:29:57 we've got to collectively develop a we've got to fix our relationship with

1:30:02 the environment and we've got to do it at all levels and it's got to be done the way we live

1:30:07 and where things have gone off the rails is how we produce our food and I believe Vandana has the

1:30:14 uh she's got a hands on the solution of the Paradigm we need to develop

1:30:21 excellent and so yeah if you can catch her she is a world

1:30:28 class uh developer and she's I consider her one of our thought leaders oh wonderful

1:30:35 great I will I will I will try I will try to accessory Simon thank you so much

1:30:42 you're welcome if you'd like to learn more about Simon's work I've put links to everything in the description box

1:30:47 below remember to subscribe to this channel if you're new here

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if you are over the age of 65 or you

1:07 have a loved one who is over the age of

1:09 65 please pass this on to them number

1:11 one strength training now I'm not

1:14 suggesting becoming a bodybuilder but it

1:17 is a very important the reality is after

1:19 the age of 65 one is not going to have

1:22 the body of a 25 year old and you can

1:24 counteract some of the natural

1:26 age-related muscle declines by keeping

1:30 up some strength training so whether you

1:32 do body exercises whether you use x

1:34 exercise bands or even light weights it

1:37 is very important a lot of this is also

1:40 linked to gate training and keeping up

1:42 your balance and also linked to ensuring

1:45 adequate protein intake which is really

1:47 important as one age as I've talked

1:49 about that before but if you are over

1:51 the age of 65 don't forget to keep up

1:54 some degree of strength training

1:56 appropriate for your level of ability

1:59 and function number two learn a new

2:02 skill a lot of people over the age of 65

2:05 think that they are too old to learn

2:07 what utter rubbish the brain is a very

2:10 plastic organ we have a concept known as

2:13 neuroplasticity you can be making new

2:15 neural connections at any age and the

2:18 more you do that you will counteract the

2:21 functional decline of the brain as it

2:23 ages so whatever it is you want to learn

2:26 that is new whether it's a new language

2:28 whether it's a new skill a technical

2:30 skill or even some sort of Mind Game

2:33 there are lots of board games out there

2:35 which required you to learn new rules

2:38 whatever it is don't think that as you

2:41 age you can't learn new things the more

2:44 you do this the better and healthier

2:46 your brain will be number three stay

2:49 social now I know it's not everybody's

2:51 cup of tea to have a massive Social

2:53 Circle and be interacting all the time

2:56 be like a social butterfly but we as

2:59 human beings are built to be social

3:01 animals and something that I see a lot

3:04 in my line of work is as one ages they

3:07 become more and more isolated and that

3:10 can be devastating and there are studies

3:12 which prove this the more socially

3:14 isolated the more of a health toll it

3:16 will take so whatever you can do to keep

3:19 up your social connections with people

3:21 you of course enjoy being with that is

3:24 very important so those are three quick

3:27 tips then that I would advise for

3:29 anybody over the age of 65 keep up with

3:32 strength training learn new things and

3:36 stay social one of the pleasures of my

3:39 job one of the honors is getting to talk

3:41 to a lot of older people over the age of

3:44 65. frequently I have patients over the

3:46 age of 90 but anyone over the age of 65

3:49 I think previous generations were much

3:52 stronger and more resilient than our

3:54 current generations and I think you

3:57 should be around healthy for as long as

4:00 possible so you can keep imparting your

4:02 wisdom and knowledge onto the younger

4:05 Generations you don't have to have a

4:07 rapid decline as you age so keep up with

4:10 those tips stay healthy stay well thank

4:13 you everyone for listening Dr Sunil Dan


---- Yeah our culture here in the United States and how we treat our elderly people is really unsavory - sad - bad. Islam is best. The East does well as well - much better. Respect your elders - treat your parents well - decline of morality and family and breaking family ties. Is sad. We have so many problems...



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Hey, yep, I got that book - it is good - good video:


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"

CO2 is by far the most important contributor to climate change. The main driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 is the burning of fossil fuels, with emissions increasing from 10.9 billion tons per year in the 1960s — which is when the measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii began — to about 36.6 billion tons per year in 2022, according to the Global Carbon Projectoffsite link, which uses NOAA’s greenhouse gas measurements in its estimates.


The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is comparable to where it was around 4.3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene epoch, when sea level was about 75 feet higher than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times and studies indicate offsite linklarge forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra.


About a quarter of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to date have been absorbed by the world ocean, contributing to ocean acidification, which may threaten some fisheries and aquaculture around the world.


"



Climate Emergency Forum • 3K views Join Dr. Peter Carter, Paul Beckwith and Regina Valdez as they discuss President Biden’s approval of ConocoPhillips’ Willow Project, a massive and decadeslong oil drilling venture on Alaska’s...


Regina: President Biden is now calling to

0:02 increase production because of volatile gas

0:06 prices. It's an amazing thing to me. Yes,

0:09 gas has gone up. The CEOs are making a fortune.

0:12 And so let's drill, baby, drill. Let's drill

0:16 on 23 million pristine acre preserve in Alaska.

0:22 Let's give ConocoPhillips the go-ahead for

0:25 this Willow Project to continue drilling.


Climate Emergency Forum. We're glad to have

0:54 you with us as we discuss Pumpin’ Up the Carbon.”

0:58 You remember that old song from the 90s, “Pumping

1:02 Up the Jams.” Well, it's half as fun and twice

1:06 as bad. We're talking about Willow. That is,

1:09 the Willow Project in Alaska. And what is

1:12 it we're going to be talking about? We're

1:14 going to be talking about betrayal, backing

1:17 out on promises, people who we thought were

1:20 for the planet, but were really for profit

1:22 all along. It's just hard to understand. I'm

1:27 coming at this from a perspective of an American

1:31 who believed a president who was running for

1:34 office, who said that he was going to be the

1:36 green candidate. And really, if you're for

1:39 the planet, there was no choice. Because as

1:42 we know, President Trump took us out of the Paris Climate Accord. So, Biden was the guy.

1:50 He was the guy. He was actually. He ran on

1:53 the whole notion of moving us away from fossil

1:56 fuels. I remember, and you may well, too,

1:58 at the beginning of the pandemic, when everyone

2:00 was staying home, a lot of the mainstream

2:04 media, they had images of downtowns and cities

2:08 throughout the world that were just empty.

2:11 And people were talking about this new era

2:14 of clean air, of bringing down the carbon

2:18 in the atmosphere, and changing our ways.

2:21 This did not come to fruition. And now, because

2:25 of this outrageous war, this I dare say, proxy

2:29 war that America and the West is fighting,

2:32 and Eastern Europe, that is Ukraine, we have

2:36 this battle cry for more oil, more fuel, more

2:41 coal, all over the world. And I am going to


And instead, we're putting

3:57 more and more in as if there's no wind in

4:00 sight. No harm, no foul, nothing to worry

4:02 about, nothing to see here. I have to say

4:04 that being an American, it breaks my heart

4:07 because I know that we're 4% of the population,

4:11 but we're the second largest emitter on the

4:13 planet behind China. So, it's one country

4:17 after another. And I'm looking forward to

4:19 hearing what countries, Peter and Paul, that

4:21 you'll be talking about and what they're doing

4:24 to our lovely planet. So, I'm going to turn

4:25 it over now to Peter. Peter: So, thank you, Regina. Yeah, that is

4:31 indeed another dose of the most terrible news.

4:34 And as the years roll on, news about climate

4:37 change, I'm afraid, just gets worse and worse.

4:40 I checked today with the U.S. Energy Information

4:45 Administration and they're very reliable on

4:49 their emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

4:54 And the United States crude oil production

4:58 is on an increasing, rapidly increasing trend

5:02 again. There was a big COVID dip, but the

5:05 governments handed out a great largess of

5:09 fossil fuel subsidies and the banks poured

5:12 more money into the fossil fuel corporations.

5:16 And the fossil fuel corporation made a windfall

5:20 record amount of profit, which one could definitely

5:25 call a killing profit. So, there's tons of

5:29 money around for the banks and the corporations

5:32 to extract more and more and more oil. And

5:36 they're doing so and all the governments are

5:39 allowing them to do so. They're all sort of

5:42 about the same. You know, they say, well,

5:44 we may not OK this one. We may do a little

5:48 bit of stuff here. But the fact of the matter

5:51 is, as the IPCC has made very clear, we cannot,

5:56 we cannot extract any more carbon from the

6:00 ground. What happened to keep it in the ground?

6:03 Not a whole lot. As well as the production,

6:06 the consumption of fossil fuels, oil and gas

6:10 in the United States, that's also, that's

6:13 also on a rapid increase. Now, the big worst

6:19 news on the fossil fuel world situation is

6:24 that China is yet again building, constructing

6:27 two new coal-fired plants every week. So,

6:32 China is now doing what it was doing back

6:35 in 2015 and it's building as many, adding

6:39 as many coal plants as it possibly can. The

6:43 reason for this was given by President Xi,

6:47 as he had no alternative, because the number

6:51 one priority for China is energy security.

6:55 And I joke not. He actually said that because

6:58 of last year's unprecedented heat and drought

7:00 in China, he has to pour more and more and

7:05 more carbon into the atmosphere and into the

7:08 air because burning fossil fuels, of course,

7:12 causes terrible air pollution. And that's

7:14 killing at least 10 million people a year.

7:17 And in addition, pouring more and more and

7:19 more CO2 into the atmosphere is killing more

7:24 and more people into the future. It is making

7:28 the life of all today's children in the world

7:31 more and more and more harsh and hostile.

7:35 I don't know whether they realize that this

7:37 is the inevitable result of what they're doing,

7:40 but there's no question it is. So, the information

7:44 on China I got from GEM, the Global Energy

7:48 Monitor. And by the way, China is also accelerating

7:53 its coal mining. So, China mines more coal

7:56 than any other nation in the world by far

7:59 and is now mining more and more so that it

8:03 can burn more and more. Now, I apologize to

8:07 the people of China because I'm not really

8:08 talking about China. I'm talking about the

8:11 world economy here. It's the world economy

8:15 and how the world economy works or doesn't

8:17 work for the future, which is the reason why

8:21 we are seeing more and more and more of these

8:24 catastrophic, as they all are, each one of

8:26 these extra fossil fuel projects is a catastrophic

8:32 project. I call it the crime of all time and

8:35 also manifestly the worst evil ever. We're

8:39 ruining the world. We're ruining the future

8:44 and our governments complicit. You know, they

8:48 gave out more subsidies last year than ever.

8:52 Our governments, complicit with the fossil

8:54 fuel corporations and the big banks, are wrecking

8:58 our planet, ruining our future in order to

9:02 make fossil fuel money.

9:05 Regina: Thank you so much. I want to thank

9:07 you, Peter, for reminding us once again, because

9:10 this is all so much to take in. We all have

9:14 jobs. We all have friends and family to keep

9:16 up with. It's hard to remember that you are

9:21 correct. I believe it's even the World Health

9:24 Organization admits that eight to 10 million

9:27 people every year die because of burning of

9:32 fossil fuel. It's killing people for profits.

9:36 And to what end? It is of no benefit to the

9:39 planet or anyone on it. So with that, I will

9:42 turn it over to Paul. Paul: Thank you, Regina and Peter. The north

Paul

9:49 slope of Alaska, where the Willow Project

9:53 is going to be put in, is one of the largest

9:57 remaining pristine areas in the USA. In fact,

10:01 it's 23 million acres in area. It's 200 miles

10:05 north of the Arctic Circle. So, this project

10:09 represents an expansion of drilling into the

10:12 Arctic, and there's no roads in the region

10:16 right now. So, it's not just the drilling.

10:19 They're going to have to build a whole infrastructure

10:21 of roads. It's on permafrost, a lot of permafrost

10:26 in that region. So to support the drilling

10:28 rig, they're going to use a technique known

10:30 as thermal siphoning, where they extract heat

10:34 from the ground so that the permafrost underneath

10:37 by the drill sites stays frozen so that the

10:40 drill rigs don't topple over, things like

10:43 that. So, it's in a very delicate, pristine

10:46 area. This project is basically a carbon bomb.

10:51 As Peter was talking about, US oil production

10:55 has hit record levels. It had an initial peak

10:59 in the 70s, then production dropped. And then

11:02 in the last number of years, because of tight

11:05 oil, it's gone up significantly, in fact,

11:07 to set a new record.




A mining

11:28 site for tight oil produces only for two or

11:32 three years, and then you have to go somewhere

11:34 else and drill another hole. You basically

11:37 leave the landscape perforated, like Swiss

11:40 cheese, to extract the tight oil. We discussed

11:43 Nate Hagen's idea of society as the superorganism.

11:48 We did a video on that. I will reiterate a

11:52 key point, which I discussed at that time.

11:55 One barrel of oil is equivalent energy-wise

11:58 to about 1,400 kilowatt hours. One human working

12:05 manual labor for a day produces about 0.6

12:09 kilowatt hours. If you take the ratio and

12:13 assume that people could maybe work even harder,

12:17 it's about 11 years. So, one human would have

12:22 to do 11 years of tough manual labor in order

12:25 to put out the energy equivalent of one barrel

12:30 of oil. This is why when we started mining

12:34 oil, we could advance society. And It's like

12:38 a cookie jar. The oil is like the cookies

12:41 in the jar, and we've taken it and we've used

12:44 it to push forward our societies, and the

12:48 cookies are hard to get now. They're at the

12:50 bottom of the jar, and we're running out of

12:52 them, but there's the externality, which means

12:56 that that fossil fuel that was in the ground,

12:58 all that carbon that was in the ground, is

13:01 now in the atmosphere and oceans. It's changed

13:04 the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans,

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Cambridge Muslim College • 128K views Shaykh Abdal Hakim Murad honours Imam Ali (ra) – a great paradigm of heroism that has always captured the Muslim imagination – by focusing on his esoteric qualities. --- Donate Today:...



resuming then are uh now quite long-standing series of lectures entitled paradigms of leadership it's

0:21 taken us in so many directions historically and geographically and uh perhaps we've just

0:26 begun to get a sense of the amplitude of the sunnah ideal

0:33 so many muslims nowadays think that the sunnah is a way of restricting you into a particular bandwidth of the human

0:41 potential but the whole history of the umma with all of our paradigms indicates

0:47 that in fact it opens up the bandwidth and allows a wide range of different

0:53 human types to demonstrate the capacity which god has

0:58 created within them this is perhaps one of the differences between ideological religion as it is sometimes touted

1:05 nowadays which is essentially totalitarian and classical religion which allows us

1:12 to grow into those positive uh divine gifts which uh each one of us has

1:20 within him or herself so it's been a complex journey here and

1:25 there but i felt that it would be perhaps indicative of a lack of courtesy

1:32 if uh in our list we didn't do justice to imam ali

1:47 the great kind of paradigm of heroism if you like that has always captured the muslim imagination

1:56 we've looked at uh sayadiini? Uthman (R.A.) and in a sense this narrative picks up from that but i don't want primarily to talk

2:04 about dates and battles and the outward uh politics of the thing even though of

2:10 course he is an intensely political figure and a reminder that the amplitude of the sunnah personality has to fill

2:17 the political sphere of the human experience and exemplify

2:22 the political virtues as much as every other aspect of the

2:28 remarkable neuroplasticity which we have this capacity to excel

2:34 or to uh repel in different areas of of the human experience

2:40 but rather to focus while weaving our story around the

2:47 the narrative the chronology to look a little bit about what we can say about the inner story

2:54 the inner paradigm because imam ali

3:00 occupies so many areas in the inspired muslim imagination

3:06 and many of them are esoteric are they not there's hardly an esoteric tradition in

3:13 islamic civilization a guild for instance malamati fraternity

3:20 the corporations the ways in which muslim civil society virtuously banded itself

3:26 sometimes medieval equivalents of the sort of rotary club and sometimes full-scale

3:32 religious orders with severe disciplines has hardly been one that hasn't inspired itself with the

3:39 example of imam ali not so much his politics although his politics is part of the whole but his as it were inward siesta

3:48 his uh inward magnitude this is of course one of the areas in

3:54 which our idea of a human paragon stroke paradigm

4:00 is going to be a little bit different from that which is perhaps familiar to those who have been schooled in the west

4:07 the west has always had this tension this difficulty between on the one hand the founding

4:13 sacred figure of western civilization taken to be satan

4:19 and the imitatio christi the true paradigm is christ himself and the fact that so much of what is

4:27 representative in his uh paragon-like status is actually

4:32 unrepeatable and can't be emulated you can't also be

4:37 god's only begotten son there's just one you can't also be an omniscient

4:43 all-creating baby in a manger just happened once

4:48 you can't be somebody who is always perfect but as a human being you grow towards perfection

4:54 and this has been the tension for them in their model of sainthood the imitation christie yes but at the

5:01 same time the growth towards that which jesus himself doesn't do or at least well if you read

5:08 the gospels he might see well he does learn carpentry or whatever it is and he kind of grows in wisdom but that's not

5:14 the orthodox position really because the incarnation is always perfect

5:19 the non-engagement with the political human societies have to engage with the political by definition but sayiddina Isa (A.S.)

5:26 doesn't do that render on to caesar he leaves it alone according to the gospel authors anyway

5:31 engagement with gender marriage and so forth that dimension of human endeavor

5:38 not there either whereas when we look at paradigmatic human perfection in the islamic context

5:46 and probably in most religious contexts in the prehistorically modern

5:51 world we find all of those dimensions fully and naturally incorporated into the ideal of

5:59 heroic humanity so

6:04 the idea of the paradigm of leadership is kind of the idea of the hero

6:11 isn't it and of course as we noticed with sulcana and there are plenty of others

6:17 one of the startling things about early islam is that there's plenty of quite active women in the story

6:24 which you don't get say in the new testament virgin mary mary magdalene martha and so

6:31 forth the kind of um receptacles for the discussion they

6:36 don't actually take an active part by and large but the sahabi yet really do

6:42 we might revert to that if we look at some of the great sahabi and some of the great females amongst the terbein

6:51 so there is a gendered dimension to this but when we look at imam ali we are

6:57 looking at really a great paradigm of

7:02 manly virtue the latin word virtus means manly is a man in latin it's that

7:10 idea of the strong decisive risk-taking hero that protects his

7:16 people and uh changes the world for the better and that obviously is one of the archaic

7:24 inspirational ideas of the human imagination when we look at the life of imam ali

7:30 we are inspired because so many really primordial ideals and principles are

7:36 being triggered within ourselves a classic text on this is the 1949 book

7:43 by joseph campbell the hero with a thousand faces one of the really

7:48 influential books culturally speaking not so much philosophically of the 20th century

7:55 and here campbell explores what he calls the monomyth he oversimplifies of course but he tries

8:02 to determine the fundamental inspirational narrative alchemical story which is behind all of

8:10 the legends and stories and fairy tales and epics of human beings going back to

8:15 gilgamesh and as far back as their records which of course isn't really very far

8:22 and it's the male figure who differs who cuts himself loose both from the

8:29 maternal world goes forth to seek his fortune etc but also becomes a hero and then

8:36 through some kind of subtle transformative process of return comes back as the king the priest king in

8:43 order to uplift and transform the world


yup campbell was his model and that's why those stories however fanciful they might appear

12:59 a galaxy far far away or how likely is it really immediately push very ancient buttons

13:05 within us and this is part of what we mean when we say islam is the religion of the fitra

13:10 that it offers us human types which are truly archetypal and buried in some deep

13:18 you don't have to adopt the jungian system which is problematic in many ways but there's something deep down within

13:25 us that starts to light up ancient neglected circuit boards at the bottom

13:30 of the human consciousness that say yes well we know who that is

13:35 and so when we see somebody like imam ali would say yes certainly not an alien story despite the arabian

13:41 foreignness of it all but yeah we can relate to this and this is part of the the immediacy of the

13:48 seerah itself why it's such a page turner because it's one of those timeless

13:55 stories that uh activate this this longing that we have for the one

14:02 who will let us out and this of course is the exact opposite of the modern thing whereby there isn't really a hero

14:10 there is a kind of indifference to past to narratives a lot of young people

14:15 nowadays don't know their past don't know their heritage don't know their history don't care at all they're completely alienated and detached

14:23 neither do they have the idea of transcending themselves because the self is what they are and

14:29 the world is saying be yourself not transcend yourself it's the perverse inversion of the traditional ideal of

14:36 what the the youth the kung fu secret ever should be doing overcome the self the self has

14:42 a witch in it it's it's something to be to be overcome we don't do that any longer and instead

14:49 to be yourself is all about whatever you feel you are don't let anybody else

14:54 interrupt your desire to be that wispy vague thing

15:00 the 12 year old boy who thinks he's a girl everybody bows their head and says yes you're a girl

15:06 and here's the medication and the puberty blockers and it's become

15:11 the opposite of the traditional ideal no longer there is the initiation into manhood or womanhood but it said

15:18 be who you feel you are which is causing all manner of increasingly evident

15:24 dysfunctions and actually nietzsche talks about this we think of nitrous this kind of crypto

15:30 nazi believer in a superman who transcends good and evil but it's not really like that he's not even an

15:37 atheist in a conventional sense he's just pretty naturally aware of where the mediocrity of the machine age and the

15:44 um homogenizing of the human experience is is leading


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----------------------Today and last night




True comments:


@robertcox14 2 weeks ago Prof Hudson, after reading Super Imperialism I was well-informed on the development of the USA Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency. Now I see how "beneficial" that was for USA and absolutely terrible for everyone else. Now I say that NO COUNTRY should ever have that advantage, and that a "Reserve Currency" should rather obviously NEVER be the currency of an "imperial power." Was the British Empire "Sterling" regime "good" for colonies??? All in favor of the British "aristocracy" - a few people reaping all the rewards. So, USA has over 800billion military budget from its "command" over currency, seemingly STRONG enough to wipe out "rivals." The war by USA is to retain the Global Reserve, and it is and will FAIL. Please, please, please!!!!!!!!!! Negotiate NOW NOW NOW NOW a "global currency exchange" that is not a lopsided bonus for one country, C'mon Jeffrey Sachs, C'mon Michael Hudson, call a conference yourselves - you ARE "leaders," you know!!!!!!!!


- True except of course in regards to the latter part I disagree - it would be up to Allah S.W.T. to turn the hurts of the American Neocons (CIA - Pentagon complex) away from thermo-nuclear war, accepting defeat and the acceptance of a multi-polar or "new" world order. - And I believe probably as well, for us Americans to rise up and take back our governments (also, including Europeans) from this "corporatocracy" - a move to more civilized and "socialized" forms of governments in which we have real leadership and people who aren't crazy, ARE mentally strong and grounded to deal with - the public, the truth of the climate crises, the truths of the cultural-societal crises', to deal with the decline of upright and moral law (to restore back to "norms" is what I mean, away from the private-state entanglement and to prioritize people and planet first above profit and who do in reality and truth), etc. and to hold themselves and in regards to the public's/anyones criticism - to account. But we don't have that kind of leadership in our so-called "democracy".

@balasitham1335 2 weeks ago It is not a binary system. We are fighting for financial freedom. Thanks, Radhika, for attending VALDAI meeting. @JoseLopez-ys2oz 2 weeks ago The war in Ukraine has hastened the creation of a new world majority with the critical capability of resisting western imperialism. The United States (US) designed a system, after World War II, to colonize the world. This new world majority is an important attempt to liberate nations from US imperialism, making it possible for nations to protect their sovereignties. A world majority defending democracy for real!





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Notes:


People should rule the world(!) - not corporations - not banks, etc.


[~37 mins] - Once monopolies get too big (Marx predicted) that is the point when things turn - we the people take ownership of them. Let's take them. Take Blackrock, take Google, Microsoft, etc. etc. - Yes sir - no to Neo-Feudalism/slavery in a State-private employer partnership.


This stupid competition - fighting - wars etc. must end. We have much. So much now due to global trade that the old rich would have never imagined. A.I. coming. Such amazing potential and with that potential, of course, the opposite is also much potential danger.("dialecticals" - was thinking before about) - people in earlier centuries wouldn',t couldn't have imagined such things. I don't even know! (myself). It is time for change.


been in the Forefront of the radicalizing gains and people like Krugman are his pres are the present day

35:12 descendants of that and what Krugman tries to do is you know he essentially tries to paint canes as a Depression era

35:19 economy so you know he may be relevant to you during depression but you know the Keynes is no longer relevant now so

35:27 various ways of uh uh de-radicalizing gains and the biggest is essentially to

35:33 not look at the problematic implications of his analysis of demand of uh the

35:39 marginal utility of capital of the role of money etc etc particularly in a time

35:45 when of like today when precisely all the fears that Keynes had of an

35:50 explosion of financial activity as opposed to productive activity have come to be realized on a scale that probably

35:57 Keynes would never even have imagined yeah I mean uh

36:03 Hyman Minsky who was a well-known Economist in the 20th century known especially for his analysis of crises

36:10 within capitalism himself someone who you know remembered the Great Depression Minsky who was not a socialist but he

36:17 also acknowledged that if you read Keynes you see very clearly that there are these internal inherent

36:23 contradictions in capitalism that tend toward crises and there needs to be significant State oversight of the

36:30 economy or will explode and in that sense that there is a lot that although

36:36 Keynesian economics is not socialist economics and there are differences it does lead eventually down that path

36:42 toward socialism and um this actually is related to the next

36:47 Crisis or contradiction of capitalism that I wanted to ask you about that you do discuss in your chapter and that is

36:54 the the transition toward monopolies the inherent tendency toward the monopolization of Industries

37:02 and you point out that actually Marx himself referred to the transition

37:07 toward monopolies as quote a self-abolishing contradiction which

37:13 presents itself primafasi as a mere point of transition to a new form of

37:18 production namely socialism so Marx pointed out that capitalism does have

37:24 this tendency toward monopolization but actually ironically that helps set the stage for the move toward socialism

37:31 because once you have these large monopolies you simply can expropriate them and they they belong to the public

37:38 so go ahead and can you talk about this problem of the move the trend toward monopolization yeah so you know

37:45 essentially what Marx argues and I think that many people would say that this is his most insightful argument uh that

37:53 essentially competition which is of course the you know it's it's natural in

37:59 capitalism competition produces its opposite namely Monopoly that is to say

38:05 as the process of competition Works itself through different sectors in each sector of production it leaves standing

38:12 only a one or two a few handful of big large corporations so that you know in

38:19 this what happens is that as more essentially as as competition intensifies uh it forces all capitalists

38:26 to invest more and more and of course uh eventually uh the capitalist that wins

38:32 the battle wins the competitive uh race clears the field of any anybody

38:39 else and then you get increasingly these massive industrial bear mods that straddle every sector you know so

38:45 whether it is chemicals or steel or what have you you have these big companies and once a company has reached a

38:52 monopoly stage you know it's it's perhaps useful to think of it in terms of the socialization of Labor you know

38:58 Marx agreed with Adam Smith that the division of labor which results in the increasing socialization of Labor that

39:04 is to say an increasingly complex it it ties in human human beings in society in

39:10 an increasingly complex web of relation so first in competitive capitalism capitalism socializes labor among firms

39:17 so you know different firms producing different things and so on and so forth and then eventually capitalism creates

39:23 these big industrial behemos that critically socialize production within

39:29 them so that you know uh uh so so that the competition among firms is then

39:35 replaced by the rational organization of production in giant firms which are

39:40 nothing more than giant planned economies so this is the way in which capitalism Marx thought would pave the

39:48 way to socialism because it would create monopolies and monopolies after they have stopped you know if they have if

39:54 there is not competition operating in the market all the virtues of capitalism are no longer there and everybody it

40:00 doesn't take a genius to say that to figure out that if you have reached a monopoly stage then the Monopoly should

40:05 not be in private hands it should be socialized uh it should be nationalized Etc and so Marx really believe that this

40:13 essentially would happen and in many ways you could see the crisis the 30 years crisis of capitalism the crisis of

40:20 1914 to 1945 which included two world wars a Great Depression Etc this was

40:26 already by this time the Monopoly stage of capitalism had reached had been reached and instead of a transition

40:33 transition to socialism what you got was the it was the um uh development the

40:41 emergence of fascist tendencies that were critically important in resisting

40:46 the Tendencies towards socialism and keeping capitalism capitalist keeping the product keeping

40:52 productive keeping the economies capitalist and so in many ways we are still sitting you know

40:58 we are we are the inheritors of the and of the consequences of that development



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